EUR/JPY should come lower amid too optimistic economic expectations – ING

Economists at ING expect the EUR/JPY pair to edge lower as goldilocks year for the US economy could be too good to be true.

The hedge should goldilocks scenario fail

“Listening to Fed Chair Powell’s press conference on 1 February it almost sounded like 2023 could be a Goldilocks year for the US economy. Inflation could come down even though unemployment remained low. If that is too good to be true, then EUR/JPY should come lower.”

“There is also the case that the ECB’s new-found hawkishness in December – and marketed with mixed success in February – falls by the wayside. That is not our house view, which sees the ECB hiking a further 75 bps (deposit rate at 3.25%) and rates then unchanged through the fourth quarter of 2024.”

“The Japanese Yen also has the advantage of stronger Asian regional growth.”