USD/JPY to reach 136.00 by year-end – ANZ

Economists at ANZ Bank expect the USD/JPY exchange rate to trade at 136.00 by the end of 2024.

Shifts in anticipation of a Fed rate cut in the first half of 2024 could slightly tilt USD/JPY downward within the range

Current dynamics, including higher US Treasury yields and the Fed's stance against early rate cuts, are expected to keep USD/JPY within a narrow range in the near term. We anticipate limited near-term recovery for the JPY against the USD, with the currency pair expected to remain rangebound between 146 and 148.50. 

Market speculation about a potential Fed rate cut in early 2024 could influence USD/JPY, potentially pushing it slightly lower within the established range.

The March and April BoJ policy meetings are anticipated to induce significant volatility in JPY crosses, with the market closely watching for signals on ending negative rates and easing policies.

We project the USD/JPY pair to reach 136.00 by the end of the year.