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11 Dec 2014
Mixed messages expected in today’s US retail sales report – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - James Knightley, Senior Economist at ING, notes that today’s US retail sales report is likely to provide several mixed messages as positive auto sales looks to add a positive support but gasoline and black Friday sales suggests that the final figure would be weak.
Key Quotes
“Today’s retail sales report is likely to provide several mixed messages. On the one hand, gasoline station sales are likely to be weak given the plunge in oil prices that has fed through into significant declines in gasoline prices – a gallon of regular was averaging around US$3.10 in October versus US$2.85 in November (it currently stands at US$2.64). On the other hand, auto sales have been very strong, with unit sales totalling 17.08m versus 16.35m the previous month.”
“However, the key story is what has happened to pre- and post-Thanksgiving holiday sales. Given strong employment and good consumer confidence readings, hopes were high for a decent set of numbers, but the fact that Black Friday spending fell 11% YoY according to the National Retail Federation suggests that it has been a disappointing sales season so far. That said, the sales season is spread over a long period and with last Friday’s labour report pointing to further signs of wage rises we are hopeful of a decent December outcome.”
“We are in line with consensus expecting a 0.3% MoM increase in November retail sales.”
Key Quotes
“Today’s retail sales report is likely to provide several mixed messages. On the one hand, gasoline station sales are likely to be weak given the plunge in oil prices that has fed through into significant declines in gasoline prices – a gallon of regular was averaging around US$3.10 in October versus US$2.85 in November (it currently stands at US$2.64). On the other hand, auto sales have been very strong, with unit sales totalling 17.08m versus 16.35m the previous month.”
“However, the key story is what has happened to pre- and post-Thanksgiving holiday sales. Given strong employment and good consumer confidence readings, hopes were high for a decent set of numbers, but the fact that Black Friday spending fell 11% YoY according to the National Retail Federation suggests that it has been a disappointing sales season so far. That said, the sales season is spread over a long period and with last Friday’s labour report pointing to further signs of wage rises we are hopeful of a decent December outcome.”
“We are in line with consensus expecting a 0.3% MoM increase in November retail sales.”