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21 Jun 2013
Flash: Calamity in emerging markets? – Deutsche Bank
FXstreet.com (New York) - Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank highlight the timely World Outlook report by global economists.
The report contains Deutsche Bank research's comprehensive view/outlook on key regions as well as respective key economic forecasts. It also includes the house views on US equities, rates, credit, MBS, FX, and commodities. “Overall our economists have marked down slightly their global growth forecasts for this year and next in light of recent underperformance, most notably in EM.” they write.
Interestingly they also highlighted that a more disorderly market response to the start of a Fed exit from QE is possible and represents the most significant risk to their outlook over the year ahead. Indeed they noted that if rates rise more sharply than anticipated, or equities react adversely, the negative market response could well spillover to growth prospects. Such a reaction could cause the Fed to delay or reduce the pace of its tapering. This is consistent with our current views on the market but for those hoping for a turnaround in the Fed's path they may have to wait some time. The next FOMC minutes are due on the 10th July and the next FOMC meeting (no press conference) is more than a month away.
The report contains Deutsche Bank research's comprehensive view/outlook on key regions as well as respective key economic forecasts. It also includes the house views on US equities, rates, credit, MBS, FX, and commodities. “Overall our economists have marked down slightly their global growth forecasts for this year and next in light of recent underperformance, most notably in EM.” they write.
Interestingly they also highlighted that a more disorderly market response to the start of a Fed exit from QE is possible and represents the most significant risk to their outlook over the year ahead. Indeed they noted that if rates rise more sharply than anticipated, or equities react adversely, the negative market response could well spillover to growth prospects. Such a reaction could cause the Fed to delay or reduce the pace of its tapering. This is consistent with our current views on the market but for those hoping for a turnaround in the Fed's path they may have to wait some time. The next FOMC minutes are due on the 10th July and the next FOMC meeting (no press conference) is more than a month away.