Back
12 Mar 2015
Chinese growth estimate falls after ugly data – Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Rabobank Team comments that the recent weak Chinese data has led to the Bloomberg’s GDP estimate for the country drop to 6.3%, lowest on the record since the first data point of 2009.
Key Quotes
“Yesterday’s Chinese data were ugly: retail sales growth slowed from 12.0% to 10.7% YoY (so no rotation into consumption); industrial production from 8.3% to 6.8% YoY, and fixed asset investment from 15.7% to 13.9%, while Bloomberg’s monthly GDP estimate fell from 6.9% to 6.3%, the lowest on record after the first data point, 5.4% back in February 2009.”
“Of course, right now Chinese authorities are worried about the real risk of too fast a fall in CNY/CNH given understandable capital outflows.”
“Yet the pressure is to the downside for a reason; EUR/CNY has moved from 8.51 to 6.67 in just a year, meaning that the “stability” China craves is the kiss of death for its exporters, regardless of what official trade data say.”
Key Quotes
“Yesterday’s Chinese data were ugly: retail sales growth slowed from 12.0% to 10.7% YoY (so no rotation into consumption); industrial production from 8.3% to 6.8% YoY, and fixed asset investment from 15.7% to 13.9%, while Bloomberg’s monthly GDP estimate fell from 6.9% to 6.3%, the lowest on record after the first data point, 5.4% back in February 2009.”
“Of course, right now Chinese authorities are worried about the real risk of too fast a fall in CNY/CNH given understandable capital outflows.”
“Yet the pressure is to the downside for a reason; EUR/CNY has moved from 8.51 to 6.67 in just a year, meaning that the “stability” China craves is the kiss of death for its exporters, regardless of what official trade data say.”