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20 Apr 2015
No clear trend for Treasury rates – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - William O'Donnell, Head of US Treasury Strategy at RBS, shares the technical outlook and key levels for 2yrs, 5yrs and 10yrs US treasuries.
Key Quotes
“I don't see anything on my statistical or technical dashboard that is indicating a clear trend for benchmark Treasury rates. Long term momentum studies still suggest that long duration Treasuries are deeply overbought. But that's been the case all year so we'll continue chilling on the sidelines with respect to our rates view while keeping a laser focus on our outlook for a steeper curve and a richer belly given clearer, long-term trend signals in each.”
“2s (0.512%)- Next major support doesn't emerge until ~0.80% where we found buyers back in the spring of 2011. Resistance seen at 0.40% where we'd close a gap left behind in late October. Daily momentum bullish but nearing overbought readings again.”
“5s (1.31%)- Next support sits at 1.46% and then stronger support comes in at 1.70% and just above. Next resistance begins at ~1.30% and extends down to major resistance at 1.15%. Daily momentum is bullish again.”
“10s (1.87%)-Next resistance comes in some congestion in and around 1.80% then the low yields of 1.64%. Next support comes in ~2.20% with major support at 2.40% after that. Daily momentum is bullish again.”
Key Quotes
“I don't see anything on my statistical or technical dashboard that is indicating a clear trend for benchmark Treasury rates. Long term momentum studies still suggest that long duration Treasuries are deeply overbought. But that's been the case all year so we'll continue chilling on the sidelines with respect to our rates view while keeping a laser focus on our outlook for a steeper curve and a richer belly given clearer, long-term trend signals in each.”
“2s (0.512%)- Next major support doesn't emerge until ~0.80% where we found buyers back in the spring of 2011. Resistance seen at 0.40% where we'd close a gap left behind in late October. Daily momentum bullish but nearing overbought readings again.”
“5s (1.31%)- Next support sits at 1.46% and then stronger support comes in at 1.70% and just above. Next resistance begins at ~1.30% and extends down to major resistance at 1.15%. Daily momentum is bullish again.”
“10s (1.87%)-Next resistance comes in some congestion in and around 1.80% then the low yields of 1.64%. Next support comes in ~2.20% with major support at 2.40% after that. Daily momentum is bullish again.”