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28 Jul 2015
Expecting a breach of 0.65 in NZD/USD – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at Westpac believe a break below the 0.65 handle is likely in the medium term.
Key Quotes
“We maintain our negative multi-month outlook for NZD/USD, expecting the 0.6500 level to give way during the next few weeks”.
“Admittedly there’s a risk of a corrective bounce near term given speculative positioning is at record levels, according to the CFTC”.
“However we will only change our near term outlook if the downtrend channel is violated (i.e. above 0.6650)”.
“Note that last week’s RBNZ surprise to markets resulted in only a 1.25 cent rally on the day”.
“The key NZ event this week will be RBNZ Governor Wheeler’s speech on the economy on Wednesday, published at 9am NZ that day. There’s a decent chance the speech will be a “quasi-MPS” and clarify the message presented at last week’s OCR Review”.
Key Quotes
“We maintain our negative multi-month outlook for NZD/USD, expecting the 0.6500 level to give way during the next few weeks”.
“Admittedly there’s a risk of a corrective bounce near term given speculative positioning is at record levels, according to the CFTC”.
“However we will only change our near term outlook if the downtrend channel is violated (i.e. above 0.6650)”.
“Note that last week’s RBNZ surprise to markets resulted in only a 1.25 cent rally on the day”.
“The key NZ event this week will be RBNZ Governor Wheeler’s speech on the economy on Wednesday, published at 9am NZ that day. There’s a decent chance the speech will be a “quasi-MPS” and clarify the message presented at last week’s OCR Review”.