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19 Feb 2016
EUR/JPY continues to have downside appeal - TDS
Mazen Issa, Senior FX Strategist at TD Securities, continues to see some downside potential in the EUR/JPY pair.
Key Quotes:
“We continue to see downside potential heading into the ECB meeting next month. Investors wishing to protect profits should tighten trailing stops to 128.00/50 but dynamics remain favorable for a challenge of 119 in the coming weeks.”
“Though BoJ intervention is a risk to this position, we think it is unlikely. Moreover, the shift in relative positioning over the last several weeks should also shield against an extended topside move should risk rally.”
“While the “short EUR” theme has become a tired trade and has burned several investors in the past— especially following the ECB head-fake in December—we still find value in this theme on the crosses. Indeed, one of our top trade recommendations from our 2016 Global Outlook was a short EURJPY position (with an entry level of 132.40, target of 119 and a stop of 137). With this cross moving in our favour in a big way this month, we were compelled to provide an update.”
“From a technical point of view, this cross continues to have downside appeal. First, trendline resistance from the December 2014 highs has been well respected. Second, the recent break below 126.00 is a key level in our view, as that has effectively represented a soft floor ever since the cross surged higher in late 2012/early 2013.”
“Overall, we continue to like the downside potential in EURJPY. 126.00 should act as a decent resistance level but a short squeeze towards 127.50/128.00 is well within the realm of possibility. Investors wishing to protect profits should tighten trailing stops to 128.00/50 area but overall, we think the topside risks should remain contained and we continue to see a target of 119 as the path of least resistance.”
Key Quotes:
“We continue to see downside potential heading into the ECB meeting next month. Investors wishing to protect profits should tighten trailing stops to 128.00/50 but dynamics remain favorable for a challenge of 119 in the coming weeks.”
“Though BoJ intervention is a risk to this position, we think it is unlikely. Moreover, the shift in relative positioning over the last several weeks should also shield against an extended topside move should risk rally.”
“While the “short EUR” theme has become a tired trade and has burned several investors in the past— especially following the ECB head-fake in December—we still find value in this theme on the crosses. Indeed, one of our top trade recommendations from our 2016 Global Outlook was a short EURJPY position (with an entry level of 132.40, target of 119 and a stop of 137). With this cross moving in our favour in a big way this month, we were compelled to provide an update.”
“From a technical point of view, this cross continues to have downside appeal. First, trendline resistance from the December 2014 highs has been well respected. Second, the recent break below 126.00 is a key level in our view, as that has effectively represented a soft floor ever since the cross surged higher in late 2012/early 2013.”
“Overall, we continue to like the downside potential in EURJPY. 126.00 should act as a decent resistance level but a short squeeze towards 127.50/128.00 is well within the realm of possibility. Investors wishing to protect profits should tighten trailing stops to 128.00/50 area but overall, we think the topside risks should remain contained and we continue to see a target of 119 as the path of least resistance.”