AUD/USD intermarket: Aussie down despite AU yields and risk appetite

AUD/USD  rose earlier today above 0.7500 and reached at 0.7511 the highest level in a month but it failed to hold above 0.7470 and pulled back, losing bullish momentum. The Aussie weakened in the market during the last hours and extended losses versus the kiwi and erased gains against the US dollar.

During the Asian session, the minutes from the latest meeting at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed a neutral stance. According to analysts from TD Securities, today’s minutes do nothing to provide more clarity around an August cut. “This remains a 50/50 proposition with Q2 CPI on 27th July really the only data release that matters. The May SoMP had underlying inflation at 1.5%/yr to June, with our preliminary work suggesting CPI coming in at 1.3%/yr.” They continue to call for a rate cut in August.

AUD/USD fail to hold to gains on Yellen

The pair rose after RBA minutes with Australian bond yields. On American hours, it dropped despite the recovery in copper prices (up 0.43% ) although gold plummeted (-1.43%). The yellow metal extended losses after breaking below $1275, at the same moment that AUD/USD started its reversal from above 0.7500.

The Aussie also declined despite the recovery of equity prices. The Dow Jones is now up 0.30% at daily highs, while European indexes are also at the highs, near the end of trading. The improvement in risk appetite didn’t give support to AUD/USD that currently trades at 0.7465, attempting to move off the lows that it reached at 0.7453.

The decline happened during Yellen’s presentation and after a modest increase in a rate hike expectations in July from the Federal Reserve Bank. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the odds of a July rate hike rose today to 11.9 from 9.5 and the odds that during September the rate would be at 0.50% - 0.75% climbed to 30.2%.