EUR/PLN seen at 4.27 in 6-month – Danske Bank

Jakob Christensen, Head of EM Research at Danske Bank, sees the cross edging higher to the 4.27 area in the medium term horizon.

Key Quotes

“As expected, Brexit concerns have weighed heavily on the PLN lately. This trend may continue going into the referendum”.

“However, in our base-case of a Bremain, we expect EUR/PLN to rebound to 4.36 in 1M. In 3M EUR/PLN is expected to strengthen slightly to 4.33 (but possibly with significant volatility), as support from a strengthening of the Polish economy and possible falling risk premium from a resolution of the stand-off with the EU slightly outweigh weakness from a possible Fed rate hike”.

“However, on a 6M and 12M horizon, we expect a moderate strengthening of the cross to 4.27 and 4.22, respectively”.