US: FOMC Minutes, trade deficit and ISM Non-manufacturing in focus - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that the US international trade deficit is expected to widen in May by both TD and the market.

Key Quotes

“TD is projected a deficit of $40.2bn, a touch below the market consensus for -$40.0bn, due to the impact from higher oil prices on nominal imports.

Meanwhile, ISM Non-manufacturing should strengthen from 52.9 to 54.1 in June, providing an upside to the market consensus for an improvement to 53.3.

At 14:00 ET, we will receive the minutes from the June FOMC meeting, which will be of far less consequence now that any near-term rate hikes are off the table due to the EU Referendum. We expect that the overall tone of the minutes will be relatively dovish and look for any reference to global headwinds.

CAD: TD expects the Canadian trade deficit to narrow to $2.0bn in May, stronger than the -$2.7bn market consensus. Exports will likely benefit from a normalization in auto production and higher commodity prices, though the energy sector remains a wildcard due to the Alberta wildfire.”