AUD/USD rallies should struggle near 0.7550 – Commerzbank

In opinion of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, occasional bullish attempts in AUD/USD should meet string resistance in the mid-0.7500s.

Key Quotes

“The currency pair sold off last week aggressively and has closed below the 200 day ma at .7553 and below its 55 week ma at .7522, and in doing so confirms downside intent. We note the 13 count on the 240 minute chart and very near term would allow for a minor rebound - the intraday Elliott wave counts are negative and indicating that rallies will struggle circa .7550. Focus is on the.7492 March low. This is the break down point to the 2016-2017 uptrend at .7267 and the bottom of the 16 month range”.

“The market will stay offered below the .7598 resistance line”.

“The repeated failure in the .7750/.7836 region, turns the market from the topside of a converging range and leaves it heading to the base of the range offered by the 2016-2017 uptrend at .7267”.