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14 Feb 2014
Gold rally continues on US growth concerns
FXStreet (London) - Gold has dipped below its highs after weak US data helped to push prices to a two-month high and their biggest weekly rally since August.
US output miss
The big miss in US industrial production helped drive gold strength. Factory production fell 0.8 percent last month, the largest decline since May 2009, while overall output fell by 0.3 percent compared to consensus expectations of a 0.3 percent gain.
Gold recovers some lost ground
Gold took a big hit in 2013, dropping 28 percent as the prospect of the Federal Reserve tapering its then USD85bn-a-month quantitative easing asset purchases eroded gold’s attraction as store of value in an inflationary climate.
However, weak US labour market data and emerging market volatility has helped to support prices in 2014, with spot prices gaining 9.5 percent in the year-to-date.
In addition, a big upswing in Chinese bullion demand has been fuelled by tightening conditions put in place by Beijing as it moves to rein in the centrally-planned economy.
Tightening global conditions
In her testimony before the House Financial Services Committee earlier this week, the newly-installed Fed chairman Janet Yellen continued in much the same dovish tones as her predecessor Ben Bernanke, but stated that the FOMC intended to maintain its current schedule of tapering the Fed’s monthly asset purchases by USD10bn a month. With emerging markets already showing signs of volatility as tightening conditions put pressure on current account imbalances, further Fed tightening may increase volatility of exposed EMs and heighten demand for gold as a haven asset.
Spot gold is currently trading at USD1,317.60/ounce, retreating from highs above USD1,320/ounce.
US output miss
The big miss in US industrial production helped drive gold strength. Factory production fell 0.8 percent last month, the largest decline since May 2009, while overall output fell by 0.3 percent compared to consensus expectations of a 0.3 percent gain.
Gold recovers some lost ground
Gold took a big hit in 2013, dropping 28 percent as the prospect of the Federal Reserve tapering its then USD85bn-a-month quantitative easing asset purchases eroded gold’s attraction as store of value in an inflationary climate.
However, weak US labour market data and emerging market volatility has helped to support prices in 2014, with spot prices gaining 9.5 percent in the year-to-date.
In addition, a big upswing in Chinese bullion demand has been fuelled by tightening conditions put in place by Beijing as it moves to rein in the centrally-planned economy.
Tightening global conditions
In her testimony before the House Financial Services Committee earlier this week, the newly-installed Fed chairman Janet Yellen continued in much the same dovish tones as her predecessor Ben Bernanke, but stated that the FOMC intended to maintain its current schedule of tapering the Fed’s monthly asset purchases by USD10bn a month. With emerging markets already showing signs of volatility as tightening conditions put pressure on current account imbalances, further Fed tightening may increase volatility of exposed EMs and heighten demand for gold as a haven asset.
Spot gold is currently trading at USD1,317.60/ounce, retreating from highs above USD1,320/ounce.