Singapore: NODX are trending higher – ING

Singapore Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) has been trending higher in SGD terms since its trough in February 2016 and if the trend persists, we should see last month’s modest month-on-month dip more than reversed, according to Rob Carnell, Chief Economist at ING.

Key Quotes

“On the positive side, yesterday’s impressive Indonesian export figures give grounds for optimism. Though these were rebounding from a sharp Ramadan-affected dip in June, and the two month trend there is more of less flat at about 14.5%YoY. Trade data from the rest of the region has been rather mixed. Taiwanese exports were broadly flat, though Korean exports were stronger. On the negative side, there have been some early inklings that 2H17 global growth may be softening a bit (soft European production data for July). But it is early days yet, and we don’t give this downbeat view much credibility right now.”

“Our base case, in contrast, remains positive. We don’t subscribe to the gloom-mongers global view. And soft Singapore electronics exports in June look due for a bounce, or at worst, flat-line, which should help lift the overall export figure. Both the consensus monthly forecast (-0.4%MoM) and the consensus Year-on-Year forecast (9.1%) look too low to us. We anticipate 12.8%YoY NODX growth in July.”