AUD/USD: RBA minutes and FOMC in sight, bullish daily chart

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.8001, down -0.02% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8005 and low at 0.7995.

AUD/USD is a slow market at the start of this Asian week ahead for what will potentially develop into an action-packed trade-off if the FOMC manages to spark some life into the pair with possible announcements for the start of its balance sheet roll-off.   

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Before that event, we have the RBA minutes due this week as another potential market mover, however, the market has priced in the RBA staying on hold for the foreseeable future. 

"If the RBA remains firmly on hold, as we expect, and the US dollar rises on tighter Fed policy, then AUD/USD could fall to 0.76 by year end," argued analysts at Westpac on a medium-term outlook, who, for the day ahead noted that the Aussie is finding some short-term equilibrium around 0.8000.

AUD/USD levels

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet noted that speculative interest is still unwilling to push the price far above the 0.8000 threshold, although expressed that the upside is still favored according to the daily chart. "The price held above a bullish 20 DMA after a brief dip below it on North Korean headlines, whilst technical indicators have managed to regain the upside within positive territory," she explained.

Shorter term, Valeria noted, that according to the 4 hours chart, the upward potential is limited, given that the price is unable to clearly break above a bearish 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators show little directional strength within neutral territory. "Some follow-through beyond 0.8035, the immediate resistance and Friday's high is needed to confirm a new leg higher, with scope them to retest the 0.8100 level," she argued.