US: Expect decline in the ISM non-manufacturing index to 56.0 in October - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura forecast a decline in the US ISM non-manufacturing index to 56.0 in October, from 59.8 in September.

Key Quotes

“Much of the gain in the top line index in September was driven by a pick-up in supplier delivery time. The stronger-than-usual increase in the supplier deliveries index in September suggests that disruptions to supply chains created by the recent hurricanes were material. Of the total 4.5pp increase in the top line non-manufacturing index in September, 1.9pp was the result of the jump in the delivery time measure.”

“We think this strong contribution will be transitory and expect some reversion in October as recovery efforts pick up momentum. However, there is some risk that the recovery in supply chains took longer than our expectations. Besides transitory effects from the hurricanes, various regional business surveys suggest domestic demand likely remained solid. We continue to expect healthy momentum in the near term.”