US: Expect a flat reading in January core durable goods orders – Nomura

Excluding volatile transportation orders, analysts at Nomura expect a flat reading in January core durable goods orders of US.

Key Quotes

“Based on the January industrial production report we estimate the output of durable goods orders excluding transportation equipment rose only modestly by 0.1% m-o-m. Although the January issue of the ISM manufacturing survey suggests healthy manufacturing activity, the indicator of new orders moderated somewhat from December. Based on these data, we expect extransportation durable goods orders to essentially remain flat in the month.”

“For aggregate goods orders, we expect a 1.5% decline. Much of this forecast is driven by our expectation for sharp reversal from the previous month’s gains in civilian and defense aircraft and parts orders. While new orders of vehicle and vehicle parts likely rose decently given the increase in vehicle assemblies in January, we think the gain will not be enough to offset a forceful mean reversion in new aircraft orders.”