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19 Mar 2014
New Zealand GDP next - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - ANZ Economists shared their views on the NZ GDP release to be published shortly.
Key Quotes
"We expect a 0.8 percent rise in production GDP in Q4 (+3.0 percent y/y). The tail-end to a strong agricultural production season is expected to contribute to a small increase in primary sector value added, with offsetting moves in the other components. A 1½ percent increase in goods value added is expected, led by a rebound in other construction, with modest rises in primary and ex-primary manufacturing. Falls in wholesale electricity prices over the quarter point to a rise in electricity value added. A close to 0.7 percent rise is expected in the services sector, with mixed readings for the individual services components. The Q4 services lift is expected to be concentrated in wholesale and retail trade, finance and insurance, transport, media and communications. Softer readings are expected for real estate & business services and government administration, reflecting falls in paid hours and/or falling housing market activity."
"Rising consumption and a positive net export contribution is expected to deliver a solid rise in expenditure GDP. A 1.2 percent rise in consumption volumes is expected, with residential sector activity flat. Small falls are expected in non-dwelling investment, with falls for plant & machinery, transport equipment and non-residential investment partly offset by rebounding other construction and intangible investment activity. Rebounding export volumes are expected to deliver a large positive net trade contribution, partly offset by a rundown in inventories."
"It would take a major surprise to alter the path of interest rate hikes signaled in the March MPS. With the NZD already appearing to be priced for perfection, a better-looking set of external accounts is unlikely to provide further upward impetus."
Key Quotes
"We expect a 0.8 percent rise in production GDP in Q4 (+3.0 percent y/y). The tail-end to a strong agricultural production season is expected to contribute to a small increase in primary sector value added, with offsetting moves in the other components. A 1½ percent increase in goods value added is expected, led by a rebound in other construction, with modest rises in primary and ex-primary manufacturing. Falls in wholesale electricity prices over the quarter point to a rise in electricity value added. A close to 0.7 percent rise is expected in the services sector, with mixed readings for the individual services components. The Q4 services lift is expected to be concentrated in wholesale and retail trade, finance and insurance, transport, media and communications. Softer readings are expected for real estate & business services and government administration, reflecting falls in paid hours and/or falling housing market activity."
"Rising consumption and a positive net export contribution is expected to deliver a solid rise in expenditure GDP. A 1.2 percent rise in consumption volumes is expected, with residential sector activity flat. Small falls are expected in non-dwelling investment, with falls for plant & machinery, transport equipment and non-residential investment partly offset by rebounding other construction and intangible investment activity. Rebounding export volumes are expected to deliver a large positive net trade contribution, partly offset by a rundown in inventories."
"It would take a major surprise to alter the path of interest rate hikes signaled in the March MPS. With the NZD already appearing to be priced for perfection, a better-looking set of external accounts is unlikely to provide further upward impetus."