US CPI: Expecting a +0.2% reading – Deutsche Bank

Markets will be focussed on US CPI data today and consensus is for a 0.0% mom headline print and +0.2% mom core print.

Key Quotes

“This will be the 30th consecutive month where the consensus for the core is +0.2% so that is no real surprise. As a reminder, only 16 of the past 29 readings have matched consensus however since 2017 that falls to just 5 out of 14 and of the 9 misses 7 have been below expectations.”

“Our US economists also expect a +0.2% reading (+0.17% unrounded) and in year-over-year terms that would mean a rise to +2.1%, breaching 2% for the first time since February 2017. Our colleagues note that the plunge in the wireless telephone service component in March 2017 will finally drop out of the calculation, accounting for about two-thirds of the rise in year-over-year core CPI.”