US: Focus on NFP this week - NBF

Analysts at NBF suggest that in the U.S, the most important piece of news will be non-farm payrolls for May and with jobless claims remaining near a 50-year low in the month, which are hinting at a very low rate of layoffs in the country.

Key Quotes

“Still, the shrinking number of available qualified workers may have put a lid on hiring. Taking both of these developments into consideration, we anticipate a 170K print. Meanwhile the unemployment rate may stay put at 3.9% if, as we believe, employment gains in the household survey are offset by a rebound in the participation rate. Both personal income and personal spending likely rose in April, buoyed by decent earnings growth. Meanwhile, the annual core PCE deflator may have slid one tick to 1.8%, two tenths shy of the Fed’s target. In other news, the ISM manufacturing index could have increased in May if Markit’s factory PMI is any guide. Finally, Q1 GDP growth could be revised down slightly.”