US: Focus on consumer expectations and credit data – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura point out that in the US, inflation expectations in the New York Fed’s consumer survey remained within a steady range in August but consumers’ outlook for earnings growth and stock prices deteriorated somewhat.

Key Quotes

“While consumer confidence remains in healthy territory, the recent discrepancy between the University of Michigan and Conference Board surveys, possibly driven by questions on real versus nominal income, could put increased importance on the New York Fed’s consumer survey.”

“Consumer credit: Consumer credit increased a modest $10.2bn in June with a downward revision to the previous month’s gain. However, non-revolving debt which includes auto and education loans continued to expand at a solid pace in line with healthy consumer fundamentals. With steady income growth and a low unemployment rate, we expect consumer credit to continue to grow at a steady pace.”