US: Employment cost index to increase 0.5% in Q3 - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect a 0.5% q-o-q increase in the US employment cost index in Q3, down from 0.8% in Q2.

Key Quotes

“The deceleration is largely due to an expected slowdown in the pace of benefits growth, which increased by an unusually high 0.9% q-o-q in Q2. For wages and salaries, comprising roughly 70% of the total index, we expect a steady 0.7% q-o-q gain after a 0.5% increase in Q2.”

“Altogether, the Q3 ECI reading should confirm the recent uptick in wage pressures evident in the monthly BLS employment report average hourly earnings (AHE) series.”