Russia: CBR likely to cut its Key Rate by 25bps to 7.25% - TDS

In line with the almost unanimous consensus, analysts at TD Securities are expecting the CBR to cut its Key Rate by 25bps to 7.25% at today's Board Meeting.

Key Quotes

“Since the June meeting, inflation developments have been positive with CPI inflation falling to 4.7% y/y in June from a prior 5.1%; the ruble has been firm, with USDRUB down about 2.0%; and, of course, the global financial environment is becoming increasingly dovish with the Fed likely to cut at the end of this month.”

“Governor Nabiullina has said that the CBR will assess the option of a 50bps cut at today's meeting, but we think the CBR will maintain their cautious stance and stick with 25bps increments.”