AUD/CNY: Risks for decline to 4.10 or lower – Westpac

It has been almost one-way traffic on AUD/CNY so far this year, as analysts at Westpac Institutional Bank note. The AUD/CNY pair is trading at 4.142.

Key quotes

“AUD/CNY was broadly range-bound between 4.70-4.90 for much of 2019 but broke sharply lower in late January 2020 as the Covid-19 outbreak in China was seen as having a disproportionately large impact on Australia’s economy.” 

“Just in the past few days AUD/CNY has slipped into ranges not previously seen since the de-peg.” 

“Near term risks are for further decline, to AUD/CNY 4.10 or lower. But multi-month we expect some AUD recovery as USD loses strength and China’s rebound supports Australia’s resources exports.”