US CPI Preview: Sharp weakening in core as well as headline inflation – TDS

Store closures likely led to fewer price data points, reducing the reliability of the CPI report somewhat, but the data were likely more than sufficient to produce a credible report, according to TD Securities.

Key quotes

“We expect a gasoline-led plunge in the headline index and at least a moderate drop in the core index.”

“Our forecast implies a drop in the overall 12-month change to 0.5% from 1.5%. We expect the 12-month change in the core index to slow to 1.7% from 2.1%.”

“Among core components, the most dramatic weakness will probably be in the travel-related parts. We also expect a decline in apparel prices and some slowing in rents.”